No Time For Governance

“Procrastination: Hard work often pays off after time, but laziness always pays off now” - Larry Kersten (American Sociologist and Author).
I found the above quote very amusing and relevant. Those in the government - ministers and bureaucrats seem to have been immensely inspired by it. Or else how can one gloss over the colossal loss of over Rs25,545 crores ($58 billion) incurred in 476 centrally-funded projects. It just sums up to 8% of cost overun. The irony is that the most serious delays occurred in power, petroleum and railway projects which constitute the backbone of India's infrastructure. The government, without any let or hindrance, would be happy to fantasize about becoming the second largest economy in the world when development of basic infrastructure vital for such dreams to materialise remains neglected.
Who is to blame for such poor performance? Nobody. In the recent history of the government, there is hardly any instance when any head of a minister or bureaucrat has rolled for such failures. Introspection seems to be the right medicine to cure such maladies. The other day, the Prime Minister, while talking on the slippages in power projects, suggested introspection for the officials. For the crucial power sector, the achievement against the target was a meagre 56% for the Tenth Plan. Interestingly, such shortfalls did not happen overnight but was spread over 5 long years and despite a separate ministry of Programme Implementation supposedly monitoring central projects round the year.
BCCI President Sharad Pawar, who is also the Agriculture Minister, also advised introspection after the debacle of Team India in World Cup 2007. Where else his heart should be as BCCI is the richest cricket organisation in the world? It is unfortunate that he cannot devote so much time for the hapless farmers who are committing suicides by dozens.
Similarly, inflation is forcing millions of self-employed, daily wage-earners and senior citizens(who are not getting pension from the government) to tighten their belts to make both ends meet. The ministers and the government officials who should have been alarmed at their own failures are protected automatically with their pay and perquisites linked to consumer price index. And even before any pressure has built up for setting up of the Sixth Pay Commission, the Prime Minister himself took the initiative to announce it to win the hearts of the pampered and organised group of government employees who constitute merely 4% of the total labour force.
My advice to the remaining 96% of the labour force is that they should be patient and introspective.

India's Fuel Basket For Power

Starting from where I had left my last post, India is gearing to use a basket of fuels for meeting its burgeoning power needs. It aims at generating 65.6% (84,400 MW) Thermal, 26.6% (33,942 MW) Hydro, 3% (3,900 MW) Nuclear and 4.8% (6, 191 MW) Renewable power by 2012. Thermal Power: India is endowed with huge coal reserves which provide a ready and economical resource. Obviously, it has been chosen as the main fuel for power generation till 2012. Out of the total thermal generation, coal-based generation has been fixed at 69,616 MW (54.1%), gas-based generation at 13,582 MW (10.6%) and oil-based generation at 1,203 MW (0.9%). Gas-based plants have the advantage that they can be commissioned within 28 months whereas the coal-based plants need at least 40 months. There is a low capital cost and commissioning cost for gas-based plants too. In a study of comparable cost, it was found that Interest during construction (IDC) and financial charges (FC) work out to only Rupees 2.75 crores ($.62 million) per MW for gas-based plants whereas it is Rupees 4.24 crores ($96 million) per MW for coal-based plants. India's preference should be for gas-based plants for their lower cost and less time taken for commissioning. The supply position of gas is also going to improve drastically and will be boosted to 250-270 mmscmd by 2012 from the current level of 90 mmscmd.
Hydro Electricity: India has vast potential of 150,000 MW but it is yet to be tapped. Generation of 33,942 MW by 2012 is envisaged which amounts to an utilisation of only 17% of the potential. Hydel power is clean energy and its generation is independent of fuel supply. It should therefore be given the priority it deserves.
Nuclear Power: Though only 3,900 MW (3%) of power generation by nuclear plants has been envisaged by 2012, there is a lot of scope to increase capacities significantly. India has got good reserves of Thorium. Public sector initiatives along with private sector partnerships will be required to expand capacity of nuclear power.
Non-conventional Energy Sources: A target of 6,191 MW (4.8%) for non-conventional energy sources by 2012 appears to be achievable. Wind, solar, bio-mass energy are showing great promises. Unfortunately, the emphasis has so far been on traditional sources chiefly coal though non-conventional energy sources can be exploited with proper support from the government. India's power position is going to improve as the mix of fuels for generation undergoes rapid changes due to cost, availability and environmental factors. Such prospects are brightening gradually.

India's Power Scenario Brightens Up

Power is one of the most critical components of infrastructure required for economic growth and better standard of living. Historically, the growth in the power sector has been always sluggish compared to the economic growth in India where as it should have been the other way. Now that India's GDP is growing at the rate of 8-10% and is projected to grow at 10% during the XIth Plan period (2007-2012), the desirable growth rate for the power sector ought to be at least 12%.
Despite such an apparent deficiency in its infrastructure, the famous financial analyst Golden Sachs stunned the world with their recent conclusion that India's economy would emerge as the second largest in the world - next only to China by 2050 and it would surpass Japan by 2032. It would be safe to presume that such conclusions were made definitely after taking into consideration the strategies and blueprint prepared by the Government and planners which aim to add a whopping 1,00,000 MW additional generation capacity by 2012 to bridge the gap between demand and supply of power.
It involves the capacity addition target of 45,500 MW for central Public Sector Undertakings under the Ministry of Power, 41,800 MW for State Electricity Boards/State Utilities and private sectors. Nuclear and non-conventional energy have been given more importance to augment power. A target of 6,400 MW of nuclear power and 10,700 MW of non-conventional power has been fixed for the period upto 2012.
With such massive capacity addition, the per-capita consumption of electricity would reach 1000 KWH/year from the level of 606 KWH/year (2004 - 2005). This is still much below per-capita consumption of 10,000 KWH/year in some developed countries. The latest provisional figures show a peak demand of 100,423 MW where as the demand being 86,425 - a deficit of 13.9% (April 2006-January 2007). Taking into account the gigantic task as well as the huge potential in growth of power sector, the Government of India has set its goal - Mission 2012: Power for All. In line of its commitment, the annual budget for 2007-08 (which essentially is a statement of accounts) has increased the budgetary support for power reforms and development from Rs650 crores ($148 million) in 2006-07 to Rs800 crores ($180 million). It has also given emphasis on Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPP). These projects involve huge investment in the region of Rs20,000 crores ($4.5 billion) or more with capacities of 4000 MW. Two units at Sasan and Mundra have been cleared and two more are expected to be cleared out of seven UMPPs by July,2007. For accelerated growth in the power sector, such projects hold out great promise.
So, there I see light at the end of the tunnel. Do you?

Children Take The Lead In Fighting Global warming

Today global warming and its apocalyptic effect on the planet Earth is no longer viewed by the scientific world as distant scenarios but is a hard reality facing the entire human race. It is, however, shocking that masses still live in the illusion that it is not going to affect their lives even as clinching evidences like shrinking icebergs in Arctic or Antartic regions as well as other serious climatic changes are regularly reported. A recent report of Reuters said "13% Americans have never heard of global warming, even though their country is the world's top source of greenhouse gases".
If this is the state of affairs with the nation of richest economy and high literacy, the awareness among people in India having poor literacy is obviously very low. There is a ray of hope, however, to the looming crisis. It has been possible to spread the awareness unexpectedly through animated films and movies for kids. Movies produced abroad like Ice Age: The Meltdown for the children dealing with global warming was a big box-office hit.
Children in India can also play a very effective role in spreading the awareness among people. They should learn subjects such as global warming, environment and pollution compulsorily at the high school level. In all interviews and examinations for recruitment, each candidate must satisfy the selectors that he has the minimum required knowledge about global warming. Thus awareness about global warming will go up and that is how a beginning can be made to fight it. How I wish it happened yesterday!

Indian Chilli Enters Guinness Book of World Records

You must have found the title some what amusing and wondered what I was really up to - writing on steel. roses and now chillies. As I am committed to portray India's inner strength despite thousands of blogs still engaged in showing only its poverty, beggars, monkeys, snake-charmers et al, this post had its compelling reasons.
Coming to chillies, I have been reading reports about them in Times of India for the last two days with the last title 'How India won the chilli war'. International honours are hard to come by and when it was to be decided which chilli is the hottest, there were 3 serious contenders. The result (do not mistake in assuming that it was based on tasting them as that would lead to, who knows, terrible consequences) was given after elaborate tests were carried out by New Mexico State University's Chilli and Pepper Institute. The Indian entry known as Naga Jolokia was crowned with the honour scoring 1,001,304 Scoville Heat Units (SHUs) and USA's Red Savina scored 577,000 SHUs. The other entrant Dorset Naga which was developed for years scored 923,000 SHUs. Just to get an idea of hotness of chillies, any chilli having only 300,000 SHUs will bring tears. It is perhaps for the obvious reason, Naga Jolokia has a local name 'Bhoot' (ghost) as one would surely start seeing ghost when it is put in the mouth even accidentally. Records are made only to be broken.
Guinness Book of World Records have many examples of old entries giving way to new entries. In this age of globalisation, one cannot shy away from competition. Till some other chilli is found to be hotter than Naga Jolokia in some other part of the globe, let us savour its global honour (definitely not its taste though!).
To sum up, India is surely very very hot.

India's Acquisition Spree From Steel To Roses

Recently, India proved that it has the nerves of steel by acquiring two steel giants of Europe - Arcelor and Corus to become the world's No. 1(Mittal-Arcelor) and No. 5(Tata-Corus) manufacturers .There might be a mistaken impression among some quarters that its most acquisitions have been made for manufacturing or services.
It all changed after I read a news report on St. Valentine's Day that a firm in Bangalore is negotiating with a Dutch flower company Sher - the biggest in the world for acquisition. Incidentally, it seems 40% of annual rose sales takes place on this occasion alone. It may be too early to speculate whether India will be catapulted to become the world's biggest grower of flowers; but already it is being reckoned as a flower power with exports touching $678 million which is expected to cross $1 billion by 2010.
Adding such feathers to India's cap would be truly admirable if one does not read daily about farmers' unabated suicides and grim struggles of tens of thousands of farmers. The stark reality is that even agriculture is not free of infrastructure weaknesses which have been impeding growth of manufacturing sector. Power has been a laggard for decades although other sectors have been scaling new heights.
Not surprisingly, the noted business school KnowledgeAtWharton and a consulting firm The Boston Consulting Group have said in a new study "India is on its way to becoming world-class manufacturer due to changing environment but poor infrastructure, bureaucratic red tape and restrictive labour laws have kept India's manufacturing a backwater while its services have become red-hot'.
'Sher' means tiger in Hindi and to capture big tigers including the Dutch one, India must firstly have power - to light homes, run factories, turn pumps and also to make roses bloom brilliantly.
Is it not?

Kudos For India's War Against Global Warming

India's current rapid economic growth is drawing increasing attention from far and near with projections released by reputed agencies that it would dislodge Japan from its third rank by 2032 and USA from its second rank by 2050.
A more deserving achievement by India, however, I feel, is its highest reduction in green house gas (GHG) emissions (which have been responsible for global warming) among the developing nations Brazil, Mexico, China and Chile. As per Kyoto protocol, these nations including India, though not bound to reduce emissions, have been encouraged to adopt measures and at the same time earn 'carbon credits' which are tradable globally so that those who cannot achieve reduction in emissions could buy such 'carbon credits' for offsetting. As per a report, India tops such a list with 155 projects registered out of a total of 492 followed by Brazil 88, Mexico 77, China 37 and Chile 14 projects. Some more projects are awaiting registration. It has been estimated that it may finally bring 350 million 'carbon credits' which on a conservative basis would generate a whopping $3.5 billion by 2012.
It has been like killing two birds in one shot. In my post

India: Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow

Today, Indian economy has slowly started getting a respectable position globally. Her GDP growth has now become, what many economists believe, sustainable at 8-10% and in the process the past low growth @5-6% has been buried. Indian MNCs are out for acquisitions abroad and the latest Tatas-Corus deal - the biggest in size by any Indian company involving $12 billion has proved beyond doubt that India has truly become a global player.
How was it yesterday?

"On the eve of industrial revolution (around 1770), India was the second largest economy in the world, contributing more than 20% of total world output. By the 1970s, after two centuries of relative economic stagnation, that share had fallen to 3% - the lowest in its recorded history. From a long-term perspective, the post-industrial economic decline of India (and China) is a historical aberration, driven to some extent by a lack of openness. After independence in 1947, India followed inward-looking and state-intervenist policies that shackled the economy through regulations and severely restricted trade and economic freedom. The result was decades of low growth termed pejoratively the 'Hindu rate of growth'. Reforms beginning in 1991 gradually removed obstacles to economic freedom, and India has begun to play catch-up, steadily reintegrating into the global economy."

So says a report titled 'A game of Catch-up' appearing in Times of India (having its source Golden Sachs' Global Economic Paper no 152).

About tomorrow, I have already reproduced the forecast made, again, by Golden Sachs in my post 'Do you believe India's economy will be the second largest by 2050?' accompanied by my wish-list. The lesson for Indians out of the vicissitudes in last three centuries is "You must run faster to stay where you are".
Is it not?

Wedding Bells Ringing For Corus

It is billed as a mega event - it is the wedding of Corus. It is also something unprecedented. The wedding is not going to be over in just a few hours. It will start by 10pm Indian Standard Time on 30th January, 2007 and depending upon what transpires, it may continue up to 8-30am on 1st ebruary, 2007. Interestingly, the groom has not been fixed as yet and there are two suitors.
Yes, I am referring to the acquisition drama of the steel giant Corus for which initially the only suitor was Tatas. But CSN of Brazil came out of the blue and demanded the hands of Corus. I was very thrilled at the prospect of Tata-Corus acquisition as it would have been the biggest by any Indian company for about $9 billion and made it the fifth largest steel manufacturer in the world. Though the earlier acquisition by Mittal Steels of Arcelor (which turned out to be a long-drawn corporate tug-of-war) ended making the combine the biggest steel company in the world, it was, in any case, launched from the foreign soils unlike the acquisition bid by Tatas - the oldest steel manufacturer and the biggest in the private sector in India.
There are contradictory press reports emanating from London about who will win the hands of Corus. 'Daily Telegraph' has said "CSN has the great desire to win Corus and may go as far as 600 pence." The Sunday Times quoted sources saying :"Do not write off Tata yet ...they are serious and they believe they can win." The irony lies in the highest bidder getting Corus despite a general impression prevailing that Tatas and Corus want each other.
In my post 'The eternal triangle of Corus-Tata-CSN', I had already said that I would be happy to see Tatas emerge as winner. I had, at the same time, expressed my misgivings about the drama ending like the film Devdas in which the hero (read Tatas) ruins himself without trying to save Paro (read Corus). Barely 30 hours are remaining for the curtains to come down. The suspense is building up. But then, I am keeping cool being reminded of the wise saying: "By all means get married. If you get a good wife, you will live happily ever after. If you do not, you will become a philosopher."
I do not want Tatas to become a philosopher.

Do You Believe India's Economy Will Be Second Largest By 2050?

Yes, I do. After all, I am a hard optimist. Why should I doubt the findings of a study that places India in No2 position ahead of USA by the year 2050 especially when the report has been prepared by the internationally reputed Golden Sachs. It had earlier projected India to No3 position just after China and USA by 2032 overtaking Japan.
The sweet music now released also says that India's GDP will quadruple from 2007 to 2020 and the per capita income will increase 35 times by 2050. This will enable Indians to buy cars five times and increase consumption of crude oil by three times. I do not know whether to rejoice at such projections. The scenario of so many cars in congested cities polluting dangerously the already highly polluted environment besides causing other problems is nightmarish and has been touched in my post 'Small cars boom spell urban doom'.
How I wish each word of the projection comes out true by 2050. Many readers may be around then to determine how much of it was realistic and how much was hog-wash. Of course, it is well known that war, natural calamities, epidemics like AIDs and political upheavals may upset the applecart. Nevertheless, I have a wish-list which should materialise preceding what has been forecast by Golden Sachs. My wishes are:
1. India is a strong, vibrant democracy where honest and capable people get elected as their representatives - not by rigging elections, or by use of money or muscle power.
2. India has eliminated hunger and poverty.
3. Every Indian has access to education, health care and social benefits. Cast, creed, language divide created and perpetrated by wily politicians no longer matter.
4.Every village has electricity as well as drinking water and every citizen has a roof over his head
5. Every nook and corner of the country is easily accessible by modern transport.
6. Every citizen is conscious and concerned about environmental degradation and reaches out to do his part to fight air, water and noise pollution.
7. Corruption has been removed from the public life. No one needs to grease the palms of anybody for getting things done.
8. AIDs and other serious diseases have been controlled or eradicated.
9. Women empowerment is visible in every walk of life.
10. Merit has become the sole criterion for advancement and selection in all spheres of life. Political interference, nepotism and sycophancy no longer work. If my wish-list becomes reality, how glorious it would be for India even if the projections of Golden Sachs attain only 50% accuracy.
Is it not?